What is Candlestick Analysis?

by Rahul Rana | Apr 20, 2019 | what-is

What are candlesticks?

Many traders use the ancient art of candlestick analysis. Candles give investors a quick view of the market actions for a day, week, month or a year. This technique dates back to the seventeenth century, when Japanese traders used this method to trade rice. Today candles are used to set up trades and spot trend reversals, but first you will need to know how to interpret them. In order to create a candlestick chart, you must have a data set that contains open, high, low and close values for each time period you want to display.

1. Open
2. Close
3. Body of candlestick
4. Shadow

The long thin lines above and below the body of the candle are the wicks (also called shadows or tails). The body of the candle represents the range between the opening and the closing prices. The colour of the body defines whether it was an up or a down period. In our charts we use green and red candlesticks. A long green candle represents a bullish pattern, an uptrend. This shows that the closing price was much higher than the opening one and there was a lot of buying pressure. A long red candle is a bearish pattern and it signals a downtrend. This is when the closing price is significantly lower than the opening one and sellers were aggressive. Generally speaking, the longer the body is, the more intense the buying or selling pressure. Conversely, short candlesticks indicate little price movement and represent consolidation.

1. Close
2. Open
3. Low
4. High

And watch out for the Doji, this powerful candlestick pattern appears when the opening and closing prices are the same. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. Alone, doji are neutral patterns. They show that neither bulls nor bears were able to gain control and a turning point could be developing.

Doji

The relevance of a doji depends on the preceding trend or preceding candlesticks. After an advance, or long green candlestick, a doji signals that the buying pressure is starting to weaken. After a decline, or long red candlestick, a doji signals that selling pressure is starting to diminish. Doji indicates that the forces of supply and demand are becoming more evenly matched and a change in trend may be near. Doji alone are not enough to mark a reversal and further confirmation may be needed.

Candlesticks provide unique visual cues that make reading price action easier. Japanese Candlestick Charts allow speculators to better comprehend market sentiment, offering a greater depth of information than traditional bar charts.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Candlestick charts are used by traders to determine possible price movement based on past patterns.
• Candlesticks are useful when trading as they show four price points (open, close, high, and low) throughout the period of time the trader specifies.
• Many algorithms are based on the same price information shown in candlestick charts.
• Trading is often dictated by emotion, which can be read in candlestick charts.

What is Technical Analysis?

by Rahul Rana | Feb 27, 2019 | what-is

Technical analysis is the study of chart patterns and statistical figures to grasp market trends and choose stocks consequently. Sounds complicated? Here may be an easier definition.
One day the share worth is up, another day it may be down. however over time, if you verify the stock price’s movement, you will see trends and patterns emerge. The study of those chart patterns and trends in stock prices is termed technical analysis of stocks. after you learn technical analysis of stocks, you may perceive the big role that technical indicators play.

Technical analysis is used by a great number of experts. All this sounds extremely complicated. An investor can easily feel it is beyond his or her understanding. However, the fundamentals of technical analysis are fairly easy if explained right. Once you know that, you can easily understand how to do technical analysis of stocks. And that is what we are going to do this section—explain the importance of technical analysis and learn technical analysis of stocks using these fundamentals.

Before we learn how to do technical analysis of stocks, let us understand two of its broad features :

• History Repeats: Technical analysts believe that historical price trends tend to repeat over time. So, they sit with historical stock charts, look at price and volume information and then using trends, they try to figure out how the stock’s price may move in the future. Accordingly, they pick stocks that they feel will appreciate and sell the ones they feel will depreciate.
• Technical Analysis v/s Fundamental Analysis: The technical-analysis approach to the study of stock charts is the opposite of the fundamental approach. If you were a fundamental analyst, you would study a company’s financial statements, such as the income statement and the balance sheet, to ascertain its growth potential. You would also try to monitor factors outside these financial statements that would increase the company’s earnings in the future. For example, you would keep track of the new businesses the company is investing in, the new markets it is entering, and the new technology it has adopted, and so on. Technical analysis doesn’t believe in this approach. It believes that stock prices move in circles. If you can spot the section of the circle the price is currently in, you will be able to make sound investment decisions. To identify the current stage of the price pattern, you would use some analytical tools. These include various types of stock charts, some momentum indicators and moving averages. We will get into these in detail in further sections.

Fundamentals of Technical Analysis:

 In order to use technical analysis for predicting stock prices, we have to assume that there is some relationship between historical chart patterns and future stock prices. This is the only way we can meaningfully use historical data to predict future prices. There are three fundamental assumptions in the technical analysis of stocks.

Market prices reflect all the information about a stock: Earlier, we said that fundamental analysis concerns itself with financial and other information about a stock. Technical analysis of stocks, though completely detached from fundamental analysis, works on a similar premise. If you are a technical analyst, you believe that all investors are aware of everything there is to know about a stock. They actually use this information when making buy/sell decisions. This information subsequently gets reflected in the stock’s price and ultimately the stock chart. This is why they only study chart patterns to gauge market trends, and not concern themselves with fundamental factors.

Patterns tend to repeat themselves: The last assumption that validates a technical analysis is that trends are repetitive. In other words, suppose a stock chart moves in a hypothetical pattern- A-B-C. So, each time we reach ‘C’, we will again start from ‘A’, and then go to ‘B’ and eventually ‘C’. This pattern will repeat itself without fail. Only once you make this assumption can you predict future stock prices based on technical analysis. Without this assumption, there is no way to tell where the price will go next by simply looking at a chart.

Stock prices follow trends: Technical analysis of stocks is based on the idea that each stock chart has its own unique trend. Prices move only within this trend. Every move in the stock price will indicate the next move.

Let’s take the hypothetical example of a ripple. When you throw a stone in a pond, you know that consecutive ripples will get formed as soon as the stone hits the water. After a few ripples, the trend will die out. However, the next time you throw a stone, a similar ripple will appear again. Similarly, even for stock charts, you know the trend from past experiences. Naturally, the move in either direction may be larger or smaller than before, just like ripples. If you throw a larger or a smaller stone, ripples too will be larger or smaller respectively. However, the pattern of these ripples will not change dramatically.

Based on these assumptions, you can use three important technical indicators to identify market trends and predict future stock prices.

• Charts: Price and volume charts are the most typical tools that are used as technical indicators for technical analysis. A volume chart depicts the number of shares of a company that were bought and sold in the market during a day. For the purpose of technical analysis, you may choose one of the traditional line or bar charts, or alternatively, use a candlestick chart. A candlestick chart is a special kind of chart that is particularly relevant for technical analysis. It is in the form of a series of consecutive candles. Charts are used together with trend lines. Trend lines indicate the direction of movement of a stock over a period of time.
• Momentum Indicators: Momentum indicators are statistical figures that are calculated based on price and volume data of stocks. These technical indicators act as supporting tools to charts and moving averages. Once you are through with forming an opinion about a stock based on the other tools we have discussed, you can use these indicators to confirm your views. Some momentum indicators are signs that occur before the price move you expected occurs. They confirm that the price is indeed going to move as you thought it would. These are called leading indicators. Other signs come after the stock has started moving in a particular direction. They are called lagging indicators. They confirm that the stock will continue moving in this direction. Indicators are also used together with moving averages. For example, when a stock price moves in such a way that it starts falling within a moving average, it is a confirmatory sign that it will continue to move as expected. This is called a crossover. Other popular momentum indicator include moving average convergence divergence (MACD).
• Moving Averages: Moving averages are calculated to remove sharp, frequent fluctuations in a stock chart. Sometimes, stock prices can move very sharply in a small period of time. This makes it hard to discover a trend in the stock chart. To remove the impact of this, and make a trend more prominent, an average of a few days price is calculated. For example, if a five day pattern of a stock’s price is Rs.50, 53, 47, 45 and 52, it is difficult to tell the direction in which prices have actually moved. However, if you can calculate the average of these prices and compare them with the average of the next five days and the previous five days, you can ascertain a broad trend.

This kind of moving average is called simple moving average (SMA). Other commonly used moving average concepts are exponential moving average (EMA) and linear weighted average (LWA). It may be noted though, that moving averages are calculated for longer duration than five days. Ten days and one month moving averages are more common.

Importance of Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis is gaining popularity worldwide. Here are two BIG reasons why it is so important to the analysis of financial markets:

1. Mathematical Approach: Technical analysts use probability to pick stocks. By using probability, they are able to predict the outcome of an action without necessarily needing to scrutinize it in great detail. So, technical analysis tells you how prices are going to move without requiring you to bother about the nitty-gritties that will cause the price to move. It is much quicker and less laborious than fundamental analysis.
2. Signs of upcoming danger: Sometimes, a major fall in stock prices is just around the corner but nobody can see it coming. Fundamental analysis tools are unable to predict it. However, by using historical chart patterns and other technical tools, one can predict the fall. Now naturally, technical analysis cannot tell you the reason for the fall, but it can tell you that it is about to come. You can prepare yourself for it accordingly. For example, before the 2009 financial crisis, everything was going well in the US stock markets. Nobody could say that stocks will fall so soon and so sharply. However, technical analysts predicted beforehand that markets are about to enter one of the biggest falls ever.

What is Financial Planning?

by Rahul Rana | Feb 25, 2019 | what-is

All of us are supposed to be planning towards our respective goals in life. We are expected to finish studies in our early 20s, get a job, buy a house by the age of 27, get a car by 29 and so on. Our capacity to dream and aim is unlimited. This needs thorough planning and execution. More than that, it needs money. Not simply earning, but also saving and investments. And to fuel our dreams, we need financial planning.

Act of managing your finances and investments is the basic idea behind financial planning. Making money is not just about earning from a job or multiple sources. It is about effective money management, saving and then investing in the right financial assets to earn more profits. Simply put, you need to make money through investments. This is the only way to roll around in money. Financial planning is the act of managing your income; setting your financial goals and then allocating your assets across investments keeping in mind your limitations and requirements.

How to Plan Financially?

Set goals -> Prioritize Goals -> Assess Current Situation -> Determine Constraints -> Form Future Strategy.

Importance of Goal Setting: How can you plan a journey without knowing where you’re going? A Goal is the first and most important step in financial and investment planning. This acts as a foundation of all the following parts of the planning process. For this reason, the process of setting your goal is important. Care must be taken that the goals are realistic and achievable.

Goal Prioritization: We rarely have only one thing to achieve in life. While planning your finances, you have to take in consideration all your goals, be it something as large as a Rs 100 crore-retirement allowance or as small as that branded T-shirt you have been eyeing on your way from work. This is why you need to prioritize your goals. They are not equally important, and some need to be achieved first. Efficient prioritization is the key to good planning.

Financial planning is not a simple task. You need to take into account multiple factors about your life – past, present and future – in order to form a feasible financial plan. Remember, for a plan to be effective, it has to be well-thought, comprehensive and with an eye on the future. Simply put, a financial plan has to be planned by individuals keeping in mind their stage in life cycle and their needs. Whoever has money and wants to utilize it in the best possible way, then financial and investment planning is a must. As the old adage goes – If one is failing to plan, they are surely planning to fail. Good and thoughtful planning is the cornerstone of an individual’s good financial health. Not enough can be said about the need for financial planning.

Wealth Management VS. Financial Planning: Wealth management and financial planning are fundamentally similar. However, there is a key difference – you can only manage wealth if you already have it. Financial planning, on the other hand, is even for those who aim to amass wealth.

Dreams and imagination are wonderful, no doubts. But we live in the reality. So, everyone has to understand their current state of life before planning for the future. In simple words, the financial plan is like a bridge connecting your today and future. So your goals and current assessment act as the platform. And you cannot have a strong bridge on rickety bases. For this reason, introspection of your current situation is the starting point to bridge the gap between the present and the future.

What should a financial plan include?

Every financial plan differs. This is because it has to be tailored to suit an individual’s needs and wants. That said, there are some components every plan should cover. While these factors should have precedence, care should be taken than other things that may affect your financial goal should also be covered.